💻 Quantum Computing: what is it and what is the latest?

Explore quantum computing's rapid rise, stock surges, breakthroughs, and upcoming events shaping the future of this revolutionary technology.

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Quantum computing is an advanced field of computing that uses quantum mechanics to process information exponentially faster than classical computers for certain types of problems. Instead of using bits (which can be 0 or 1), quantum computers use qubits, which can be both 0 and 1 at the same time due to principles like superposition and entanglement.

Quantum stocks surged in 2024, particularly since the beginning of October. As there has been incredible interest in the sector, and while quantum computing is in its infancy, there have been some interesting advancements over the last few years, and months, with Googles willow chip. In which the company cracked a 30-year challenge in quantum computing by completing in 5 minutes what would take a supercomputer 10^25 years to accomplish.

Meng Li covered the recent developments and some potential implications of the breakthroughs with this timely with article.

In early January the CEO of Nvidia Jenson Huang at CES cast doubt on the timelines of quantum computing, suggesting that “very useful quantum computers” are more than a decade away, possibly even 15-30 years away. This sent stocks of publicly traded quantum stocks such as IONQ, RGTI, and QBTS in nearly half in just 24 hours. Mark Zuckerberg and John Chambers, former CEO of Cisco, also made similar remarks while speaking on the topic in the following days.

To complicate matters further in the next few weeks, Microsoft Azure, through a blog post, talked about 2025 being the year of quantum adoption. In which they talked about being quantum ready as a business and a global imperative. That's a strong statement and it’s from a company whose management I put at the top of the industry.

Also, after the CEO of Nvidia ran these quantum stocks through the ringer with his comments, there was an announcement from Nvidia themselves that they will be hosting a quantum day (First Ever) during their yearly GTC conference in March.

This has left many traders and investors in a difficult position, attempting to navigate the quantum landscape with many asking the question.

Is it just a passing craze, or a truly revolutionary technology?

Without going into great detail on the financial implications for many of these companies, I want to at least look at some analysis and opinions around the web on the subject. There are many views on the trajectory of these companies, while personally I see a great opportunity in these quantum stocks. I assume continued breakthroughs will occur, regarding error reductions, qubit stability, and scaling, among other challenges that pose a challenge to broader adoption. I believe overtime continued advancements should eventually lead to Quantum Technologies (QT) becoming an integral part of many companies’ backbones.

Updated McKinsey analysis for the third annual Quantum Technology Monitor reveals that four sectors—chemicals, life sciences, finance, and mobility—are likely to see the earliest impact from quantum computing and could gain up to $2 trillion by 2035.

Also, the public investments within the field keep growing, and even as private investments have declined by 27% in 2023. The drop off was partly due to the explosion of investments in generative AI. It is also worth noting that the decline in QT investments was still much less than the industry average for all start-ups over this exact time period falling by 38%.

At the same time, public investment surged by over 50% over their 2022 levels, as we saw new announcements from Canada, Australia, India, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. Below is a chart of the global public investments made into Quantum Technology (QT) companies and public initiatives. With the Unitied Kingdom, South Korea, and Germany making considerable increases in their spending in just 2023.

The argument that quantum computing will remain a niche, with only academics using the technology is a low probability outcome.

In the 1970s, people described the internet similarly; many considered a global communication network for instant communication to be science fiction. During the Cold War, they tasked Bill Duvall, who was working on the Advanced Research Projects Agency Network (ARPANET) system, with creating a network capable of directly sharing data without telephone lines. This formed the foundation of the internet we use today, but despite being at the forefront of its development, he never predicted its commercial success.

I saw the work we were doing at SRI as a critical part of a larger vision, that of information workers connected to each other and sharing problems, observations, documents and solutions. What we did not see was the commercial adoption nor did we anticipate the phenomenon of social media and the associated disinformation plague.

Another great example of a technology that shocked many is where we are today with AI and machine learning. People once considered AI limited to basic calculations and simple automations. Experts even doubted the possibility of machines understanding languages, playing games at a human level, or being creative with art and music.

Today, those assumptions about the limitations of AI are laughable. As I use it just about every single day similarly, and it’s not only possible, but it’s remarkably affordable.

This all sounds pretty familiar to what I’m hearing about quantum computing today from the skeptics, who honestly are some really smart people.

My point here is I don’t know what will happen, but anytime I read and hear someone who knows exactly how something will turn out. I try to leave my ego at the door and not let my bias dictate my analysis, but I often take these closed-minded opinions with a grain of salt.

Just look at how many people forecasted Bitcoin becoming a mainstream asset, by considering it digital gold, that the US government is now looking into stockpiling. Never mind the amount of people who thought the concept of Bitcoin was possible at all before 2011, which I imagine was slim to none, as slim just left town.

Or how bought sequencing the Human Genome which was once thought nearly impossible because of complexity and cost of sequencing DNA. Well, that changed in 2003, and now it’s possible to get yours sequenced for the low price of just a $100.

There is also CRISPR technology that was another science fiction story until scientist started editing our DNA.

Never mind the countless advancements in Space exploration which today are being driven by investments in the private sector. The cost and engineering challenges once made this idea seem impossible.

But aren’t these QT stocks in a bubble right now?

With the explosion of electronic trading and investing over the last two decades as access to high-speed premium caliber research became prevalent. It has made trading or investing in many of these game changing stocks expensive, as in your buying into a story already at a premium valuation that has yet to develop more often than not.

That brings us to today with many people wondering if quantum computing companies like IONQ, RGTI, and QBTS are currently in a speculative bubble, which is surely a possibility. As I was just saying, betting against breakthroughs, or even on them, is a tough call to make, and these markets are driven by speculation at their hearts. There is growth though in the sector as IONQ, one of the biggest pure play stocks in the sector grew revenues by 89% last year. The reality is its still well under 100 million in revenue, so it’s a small stream, a niche currently.

Still, it’s important to remain flexible and allow QT to develop more before we can fully understand its potential. These stocks could be cheap in hindsight, or wildly expensive, with clear winners and losers, as their respective approaches vary greatly.

As an example, there are companies currently that use silicon photonic chips manufactured in the US, like those from PsiQuantum, which are produced by semiconductor company GlobalFoundries. This, in theory, should help them ramp up production to meet the needs of society with a proven manufacturing capability.

"To economically and reliably produce large volumes of components, you need to be in a Tier 1 semiconductor fab," asserts Rudolph. "These suppliers produce billions of transistors for laptops and cell phones—so millions of qubits is easily achievable for them."

As these companies jockey for position in the QT landscape, I want to remind everyone. That we have seen a plethora of technological advancements that were literally supposed to be the next game changing technology slip into the anvils of time. Also, we have seen other smaller bubbles in areas such as 3-D printing, Cannabis, and even Hydrogen related companies such as Plug Power in 2021.

So, while there are also breakthroughs that can push technology to new heights, there are also hype phases that never really live up to their promise or perceived timelines.

Pumping the brakes - Bubbles and the Nanotech craze.

Looking at another industry and bubble in 2021, we saw an explosion of EV stocks hit the capital markets; Rivian, around its IPO, reached a valuation near $133 billion, but its current value is about one-tenth of that. There are many comparable companies that have met a similar fate, or even worse, over the last few years, as many EV startups have gone out of business since the bubble in 2021.

For me, this isn’t a directly comparable situation, but it shows how emotions and the markets can get well ahead of themselves. There is incredible cost in scaling an automotive operation, as it’s a money pit for years, and combined with slower sales than expected, these companies had a tough road over the last few years, pun intended.

When I began trading professionally in the early 2000s, the late 1990s dot-com bubble had already formed. This is a perfect example of expecting the game changing technologies too soon, as it really took a decade for new technologies based on the internet to really develop. Social media companies are a perfect example of this, as it took years just to conceptualize, then years to work out winners (Facebook) and losers (Myspace), even as the internet took the world by storm immediately.

The most comparable situation to quantum computing that may serve as a warning sign, or at least a cautionary tale, is that of the nanotechnology bubble of the early 2000s. Back then, people expected nanotechnology to revolutionize nearly every aspect of life. Venture capitalists invested billions in the technology, believing it would yield the century’s most significant returns.

While we continue to see advancements in nanotechnology, it undoubtedly fell short of the high expectations many had in the early 2000s, me included.

The technology succeeded, but the massive investment certainly went astray. What I find similar is the money that is flowing into nanotechnology programs is very similar to the comparable situations with quantum computing initiatives taking form around the globe today.

Also, at the height of the Nanotech craze, there were about 1200 startups, which are eerily similar to how many QT startups we now have today in the world.

Plus, the potential for upending the global system is a real thought with quantum computing, putting traditional encryption methods like RSA or ECDSA at risk. Also, Bitcoin, one of these revolutionary technologies, could also be at risk of being comprised by QT. This resembles many past attempts to change the world using nanotechnology.

So, there are huge expectations for QT over the next decade and I believe the potential will lie somewhere in the middle of the calculations and assumptions being made about the trajectory of quantum technologies.

Wrapping it all up, what is in store for the next few months?

I want to talk briefly about trading, which is what I do for a living. In full disclosure, I do some calls in IONQ but it’s short-term money, and I have no investments in any of the other stocks in the quantum field.

With stocks of Quantum Computing companies up all well over 100% over the last few months, one has to be careful about expecting these stocks to continue to move higher. That said, there is a reason I own IONQ calls, as the odds we continue higher into GTC in March is a bet I will continue to make all things equal.

This will be the biggest event of this year related to quantum companies. When the CEO of Nvidia mentioned his feelings about the timelines that quantum computers were on, the publicly traded stocks absolutely collapsed.

While I am currently long, I believe the probabilities favor a broad pullback in quantum-related stocks by the second half of this year. With excitement level for technology at new heights, the industry needs an acceleration of breakthroughs in the coming months, or froth will probably collapse just as it does on a latte.

Therefore, while the future looks bright for quantum technology and the industry, there have been many instances in the past where the hype was greater than reality, and the investments were ahead of the potential. While I cannot be certain that this isn’t another one of those times, the next few years will be crucial in making that assessment.

Governments around the world continue to pour money into QT initiatives, as investors and traders anxiously await these upcoming events, with none bigger than Nvidia’s GTC Quantum Day on March 20th.

I can’t help but be excited about what the next few years will bring. With the ever-evolving realities of QT coming into view, we watch as another potential game-changing technology steps up to the plate and takes a swing.

Upwards and onwards,

Eric

Upcoming Quantum Technology Events 2025

February:

Quantum Days 2025

• Dates: February 19–21, 2025

• Location: Toronto, Canada

• Overview: Canada’s flagship quantum science and technology conference, bringing together global leaders in quantum computing, quantum information, quantum communications, quantum materials, and related fields.

Quantum Innovation Summit 2025

• Date: February 25–27, 2025

• Location: Dubai, United Arab Emirates

• Overview: Focused on 'Quantum Frontiers: Innovating for a Secure Future,' this summit invites industry leaders, researchers, and policymakers to engage in dialogue, showcase advancements, and forge strategic partnerships in quantum technologies

Quantum Information Processing (QIP) Conference 2025

• Dates: February 22–28, 2025

• Location: Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

• Overview: Hosted by Duke University and NC State University, this conference focuses on the latest research in quantum information and computation.

March:

APS Global Physics Summit

• Dates: March 16–21, 2025

• Location: Los Angeles, CA, USA

• Overview: Explore QCi's dual focus on Foundry Services and Quantum Machines at the APS Global Physics Summit 2025, the ultimate gathering for physicists worldwide.

NVIDIA Quantum Day at GTC Conference

• Date: March 20, 2025

• Location: San Jose, CA, USA

• Overview: NVIDIA will host its first Quantum Day, bringing together leading experts to discuss the path toward useful quantum applications.

Quantum Networks Summit 2025

• Date: March 25–26, 2025

• Location: Paris, France

• Description: A summit focusing on advancements in quantum networks, bringing together experts to discuss the latest research and developments in the field.

Quantum Australia Conference 2025

• Date: March 25–27, 2025

• Location: Brisbane, Australia

• Overview: Offers industry, academics, government, and students the opportunity to engage and understand the translational side of quantum, covering world-leading research alongside emerging industry applications and case studies.

D-Wave Qubits 2025

• Date: March 31–April 1, 2025

• Location: Scottsdale, Arizona, USA

• Overview: A forum for connecting with quantum computing trailblazers and thought leaders globally, sharing insights, brainstorming new ideas, and forging lasting partnerships.

International Conference on Quantum Communications, Networking, and Computing (QCNC 2025)

• Date: March 31–April 2, 2025

• Location: Nara, Japan

• Overview: Provides a forum for academic researchers and industry practitioners to present research progress, exchange new ideas, and identify future directions in quantum communications, networking, and computing.

April:

Quantum Computing Scalability Conference 2025

• Dates: April 2–4, 2025

• Location: Oxford, United Kingdom

• Overview: Organized by the UK National Quantum Computing Centre (NQCC), this conference addresses key scalability issues across quantum platforms.

Quantum Tech Conference 2025

• Dates: April 14–16, 2025

• Location: Washington D.C., USA

• Overview: Focused on the commercial applications of quantum computing, communications, and sensing, bringing together industry leaders and researchers.

Quantum Computing Theory in Practice (QCTIP) 2025

• Dates: April 23–25, 2025

• Location: Berlin, Germany

• Overview: Aims to bridge the gap between theoretical quantum computing and practical implementations, fostering collaboration between academia and industry.

May:

Q2B Tokyo 2025

• Date: May 15–16, 2025

• Location: Tokyo, Japan

• Overview: A conference bringing together the quantum computing community to discuss advancements and applications in the field.

IQT Nordics 2025

• Date: May 20–22, 2025

• Location: Gothenburg, Sweden

• Overview: Focuses on real-world applications and progress enabled by quantum technology, featuring sessions on end-user applications, quantum strategies in industrial sectors, and innovations in quantum computing platforms.

Quantum Matter International Conference (QUANTUMatter 2025)

• Date: May 20–23, 2025

• Location: Grenoble, France

• Overview: Aims to gather communities engaged in the science and technologies of quantum information and quantum matter, fostering new ideas and collaborations at the forefront of quantum technologies.

June:

QUANTUM NOW 2025

• Date: June 18–19, 2025

• Location: Montréal, Québec, Canada

• Overview: An exclusive gathering bringing together visionary executives, senior policymakers, and investors to explore, connect, and strategize alongside leading quantum industry pioneers.

World of QUANTUM 2025

• Dates: June 24–27, 2025

• Location: Munich, Germany

• Overview: A comprehensive event showcasing the latest advancements in quantum technologies, including computing, communication, and sensing.

July:

2nd Workshop on Quantum-Secure Networks and Systems (QSNS 2025)

• Date: July 2–5, 2025

• Location: Bologna, Italy

• Overview: Addresses pressing cybersecurity challenges of the quantum era from an engineering perspective, contributing to global efforts towards a post-quantum cryptography transition.

September:

IEEE Quantum Week 2025

• Date: August 31–September 5, 2025

• Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

• Overview: Bridges the gap between the science of quantum computing and the development of the industry, featuring keynotes, tutorials, workshops, technical papers, panels, and posters.

Theory of Quantum Computation, Communication and Cryptography (TQC 2025)

• Date: September 15–19, 2025

• Location: Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, India

• Overview: A leading annual international conference for students and researchers working in the theoretical aspects of quantum information science.

Superconducting Qubits and Algorithms (SQA 2025)

• Date: September 25–29, 2025

• Location: Delft, The Netherlands

Overview: A scientific conference focusing on science, technology, and algorithms relevant to superconducting quantum computers.