A few months ago, Anthropic was still aiming to rival SpaceX(SPCX 0.00%↑), touting a mythical $2 trillion valuation. But as the roadshow approaches, not only has the quoted price on secondary-share trading platforms already fallen below $1.7 trillion, but several buy-side institutions have privately said bluntly: if the final listing price isn’t cut below $1.5 trillion, nobody is willing to step in and absorb shares at the high end.
Strangely, Anthropic had just revealed an impressive hand: Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion in a single quarter, its first profit on an adjusted basis, and free cash flow turning positive.
With such a flawless report card, why is the capital market responding with a cold shower? Because beneath the shiny numbers, the market smells financial window-dressing:
A “gross margin” calculated without deducting the cost of training new models;
Revenue inflated layer by layer through gross-basis accounting;
The truth of growth decelerating by two-thirds within a single quarter.
This article is hardcore. It is not the kind of fast-food content that gives you a rough overview in three minutes or rushes to conclusions after writing a few news headlines. It is the business and financial truth I’ve peeled apart layer by layer after going through the prospectus details and earnings reports over the past while.
